Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 17 Jun 2013 06:00 to Tue 18 Jun 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Jun 2013 21:31
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
Valid: Mon 17 Jun 2013 06:00 to Tue 18 Jun 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Jun 2013 21:31
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
A level 1 was issued for SW France and NE SPain mainly for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for W France, central France, NW France, the BeNeLux countries mainly for large hail, and to a lesser extent for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for eastern France parts of Germany, the Alpine countries, N Italy and the W Balkans mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe winds.
A level 1 was issued for central Italy mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe winds.
SYNOPSIS
Monday morning a mid-level low will be cutting off from the westerlies reaching the NW of the Iberian Peninsula on Tuesday morning. The system is sourrounded by a strong cyclonically curved mid-level jet with wind speeds in excess of 35 m/s at 500 hPa on its southern and eastern flanks. Along an axis from the southern UK toward the Alps, a ridge builds at mid levels with significant height rises. A plume of warm air is advected northward across much of western and central parts of Europe. Despite relatively strong lapse rates over western Europe and abundant humidity in some areas, a strong cap will likely prevent convective initiation in most places. Storms may however develop along the edges of the warm air and in the vicinity of mountain ranges. The extent to which this occurs is the greatest factor of uncertainty for this forecast.
A level 1 was issued for W France, central France, NW France, the BeNeLux countries mainly for large hail, and to a lesser extent for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for eastern France parts of Germany, the Alpine countries, N Italy and the W Balkans mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe winds.
A level 1 was issued for central Italy mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe winds.
SYNOPSIS
Monday morning a mid-level low will be cutting off from the westerlies reaching the NW of the Iberian Peninsula on Tuesday morning. The system is sourrounded by a strong cyclonically curved mid-level jet with wind speeds in excess of 35 m/s at 500 hPa on its southern and eastern flanks. Along an axis from the southern UK toward the Alps, a ridge builds at mid levels with significant height rises. A plume of warm air is advected northward across much of western and central parts of Europe. Despite relatively strong lapse rates over western Europe and abundant humidity in some areas, a strong cap will likely prevent convective initiation in most places. Storms may however develop along the edges of the warm air and in the vicinity of mountain ranges. The extent to which this occurs is the greatest factor of uncertainty for this forecast.
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