lundi 22 juillet 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 22 Jul 2013 06:00 to Tue 23 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 21 Jul 2013 23:15
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for NE Algeria and N-Tunisia mainly for very large hail and severe downbursts. Local flash flooding is possible.

A level 1 was issued for far N-Spain, W-France, UK and parts of Ireland mainly for large hail, strong to isolated severe wind gusts and heavy to excessive rainfall amounts. An isolated very large hail event over W-France is possible. An isolated tornado event over NW-France and SW UK is possible.

A level 1 was issued for extreme SE France, S-Switzerland and extreme NW-Italy mainly for isolated large hail.

Numerous level 1s were issued for parts of C-Italy, Corsica and Sardinia mainly for isolated excessive rainfall amounts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of far W-Russia mainly for an augmented tornado risk.

SYNOPSIS

An omega-like blocking pattern continues over Europe although the ridge in-between does not look healthy at all. In fact a gradual weakening trend is forecast during the day and thunderstorm probabilities increase along its western/southern fringe.
Two upper troughs flank the high along its western and eastern fringes. Especially the western one (over the far E-Atlantic) provides increased thunderstorm probabilities during the forecast and also for the following days.
Numerous vortices with marginal cooler mid-level air cross the C-Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea from west to east and result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity over Italy and Greece.

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