Jul 22, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
   CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A LONG-WAVE TROUGH --ANCHORED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
   QUEBEC-- WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE D1
   PERIOD.  UPSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...A BELT OF ENHANCED WNWLY
   MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN
   PLAINS...BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A BROAD
   LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  A COUPLE
   WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE APPARENT WITHIN THIS
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME...ONE OF WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING
   ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE THE OTHER TRANSLATES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
   TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.  ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WA
   WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE PRECEDED BY A
   WEAKER IMPULSE OVER WY WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
   MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN
   CO/WRN KS WILL SLOW THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE
   MID MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
   WILL TRAIL NWWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
   QUASI STATIONARY.  FARTHER TO THE S...MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM
   FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LOW EWD ACROSS
   CNTRL KS WHERE IT LINKS WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   SSEWD INTO NWRN AR AND THEN EWD INTO NWRN TN.