DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THREE MAIN ELEMENTS... 1. TROUGHING OVER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH PERIOD AS SERIES OF MOSTLY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE LARGE BELT OF ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND. 2. ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENING AROUND ITS CENTER OVER W-CENTRAL TX...WITH RIDGING NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. 3. WEAKENING SYNOPTIC TROUGH FROM SWRN CANADA SWWD ACROSS PAC NW AND ADJACENT PAC WATERS. PRONOUNCED CYCLONE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS WSW-ENE ELONGATED CIRCULATION OVER ORE/ID/MT...IS FCST TO WEAKEN THROUGH PERIOD. PRIMARY/EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN MT...ALSO WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY/REMNANT/FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY WILL LINGER FROM DELMARVA REGION SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS. TIDEWATER-AREA AND NC PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN FROM N-S BY COLD FRONT DURING OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. AT 4/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NJ WWD ACROSS SRN OH THEN WSWWD OVER OZARKS. WRN/TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING/WEAK BOUNDARY FROM OZARKS WWD ACROSS CO/NM BORDER REGION BY 4/00Z...LIKELY REINFORCED AND EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD ON MESOSCALE BY OUTFLOW FROM ANTECEDENT CONVECTION. SFC TROUGH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS REGION FROM NRN CO TO S-CENTRAL MT.
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire