samedi 3 août 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 03 Aug 2013 06:00 to Sun 04 Aug 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 03 Aug 2013 01:09
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for S Norway and S Sweden for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for a belt from W Poland and E Germany to E Spain for large hail, severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the Western Alpine region for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.


An extensive low-pressure system to the Northwest of the British Isles strengthens its status as the dominant steering center. Its frontal system pushes across Norway, Sweden and Denmark during the forecast period along with an intense short-wave trough, whereas the long tail of the cold front - bereft of any forcing - gets more or less stationary and inactive across Germany, France and Spain.
Ahead of the cold front, a deep and moderately strong Southwesterly flow continues to advect very hot air from NW Africa into Central Europe. This area will also be the focus for organized thunderstorms on Saturday.
Otherwise, poorly organized convection in an environment of limited CAPE and weak vertical wind shear is expected over the British Isles, where another short-wave trough reactivates the maritime post-frontal air, and in the vicinity of an old upper-level low centered over the Ukraine.

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