mercredi 18 septembre 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 18 Sep 2013 06:00 to Thu 19 Sep 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 18 Sep 2013 06:49
Forecaster: PUCIK
No threat levels have been issued.


Between a ridge over the southern part of Atlantic / Iberia and a deep negatively tilted trough stretching from the Norwegian Sea towards Central Europe, broad northwesterly flow will impact much of Europe in the mid to upper troposphere. It is forecast that southern base of the trough will detach, forming a separate cyclonic vortex, heading towards Southern Ukraine / Black Sea. Speaking of DMC ingredients, this forecast period will generally feature a lack of overlap between low level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, perhaps apart from three locations: Northern Africa, Southeastern Spain and the Black Sea. Even here, lack of more significant vertical wind shear will preclude chances for severe DMC, so that no Levels are introduced atm.

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