2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC AC 111729

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CNTRL
   TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ALTHOUGH AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

   ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS ON
   MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND
   CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   JET IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID MO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IA SWD ACROSS MO. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST
   AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR NEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUE FROM CHICAGO IL SWWD INTO CNTRL MO
   SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS CELLS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.

   FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A POCKET OF
   ENHANCED INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI BENEATH AN EWD MOVING
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ON THE
   NRN END OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
   ENHANCED MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DETROIT AT 21Z/MON
   SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IN
   ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND THERE IS SOME
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.