jeudi 8 mai 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 May 2014 06:00 to Sat 10 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 May 2014 20:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of the E-UK mainly for an isolated large hail/tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued for the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for an isolated large hail and tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued for N/NE Germany and NW Poland mainly for an isolated large hail risk.


A Rossby wave over the N-Atlantic streaks NW-Europe. Attendant polar front jet along its eastern fringe steers numerous mid-layer waves over N-Europe from west to east. A pronounced wave is forecast to evolve over the British Isles with a rapid motion towards Germany and Poland until the end of the forecast. Despite a weakening trend of the mid/upper jets, winds at 500 hPa still exceed 40 m/s while passing over NE France. Models offer consistent timing of that wave but its amplitude and final location remain a bit uncertain with ECMWF prefering a smaller amplitude (displaced a bit to the north) compared to GFS.
A large-scale upper low over SE Europe won't move a lot throughout the forecast, so unsettled conditions persist over Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey. Rising mid-level heights bring quiet conditions to the Iberian Peninsula (excluding orographically induced convection).

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