May 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER INTO FAR
   WEST TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON.  EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
   IDEA WITH AN APPARENT REGION OF ASCENT NOW EVIDENT FROM SERN AZ INTO
   NRN MEXICO SPREADING EAST IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MODELS. 
   TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO WEST OF DEL RIO BY
   21Z...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND ELY COMPONENT FORCES
   MOISTURE WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST
   AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL TX AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S...EFFECTIVELY REMOVING THE EARLY-DAY CAP. 
   WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
   SBCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
   BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...AR TO INDIANA...

   WEAKENING MCV IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOWER MS VALLEY MCS AS IT
   PROGRESSES ACROSS AR/NRN LA THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
   EAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBIT PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN A
   WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST
   THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PROVE MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
   CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY
   MCS.  WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THE
   MID-MS/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
   THE HEAT OF THE DAY MAY PROVE QUITE ISOLATED.

   WITH 60-90M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS IL INTO NRN
   INDIANA THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  IT REMAINS TO BE
   SEEN HOW UNSTABLE THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
   SBCAPE SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE BANDS
   SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
   GREATEST RISK WITH LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS.