Jun 8, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
   MID SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE APPALACHIANS. DAMAGING
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   INTO UT.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
   CO/NM...WHERE MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO
   WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING.  FAVORABLE
   FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
   ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM.

   IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF
   THE LARGE MCS NOW OVER OK.  HOWEVER...DUE TO BETTER UPPER FORCING
   TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
   RISK FOR STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH
   TX.

   ...ARKLATEX INTO MS/AL...
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/NORTH
   TX AND AR THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
   PROBABLY SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.  STRONG DESTABILIZATION ON THE
   SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE REMNANT MCS MAY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION
   DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF AR.  THOSE STORMS WOULD
   POTENTIALLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MS/AL DURING THE EVENING. 
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...OH/PA/WV/VA...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OH.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MID LEVEL
   MOISTENING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
   OF WESTERN PA SOUTHWARD INTO WV/VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
   MLCAPE.  HOWEVER...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.