dimanche 15 juin 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 15 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 16 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Jun 2014 21:27
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for north-eastern Spain mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for the south-western Mediterranean mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for the Aegean region including Macedonia and Bulgaria mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation, and to a lesser extend for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for central Turkey mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough has established over Europe, with its centre over southern Scandinavia and western Russia. Northerly winds still advect cool and dry air into most regions, whereas the overlap of rich moisture and steep lapse rates is pushed further south into the central and southern Mediterranean. Cold mid-level air is present near the base of the trough over western Russia and parts of eastern Europe, and steep lapse rates will form in response to diurnal heating. Another area of steeper lapse rates will be a cut-off low that forms over France and the west Mediterranean.

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