DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MOST SALIENT UPPER-AIR FEATURE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION AND GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MS AND MID/LOWER MO VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AT
DIFFERENT TIMES...LEADING TO A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE ADJACENT CNTRL PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NERN CO WILL UNDERGO A
SLIGHT DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT INTO W-CNTRL MN BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER WRN KS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
DRYLINE WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM WRN KS TO WRN TX.
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