
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
TX...SERN OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL MORE
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE ERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS EWD. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM THROUGH TRACKING INTO THE NWRN
STATES AND NRN ROCKIES. A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD THEN SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID MS TO OH VALLEYS WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
ADVANCING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
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