jeudi 12 juin 2014

Jun 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
   TX...SERN OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
   MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND EAST INTO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONAL MORE
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
   AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
   U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
   AS IT DRIFTS EWD.  MEANWHILE...A STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM THROUGH TRACKING INTO THE NWRN
   STATES AND NRN ROCKIES.  A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW
   MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
   WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD THEN SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
   TO THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
   MID MS TO OH VALLEYS WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
   ADVANCING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.  A
   WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

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