DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN SD AND PARTS OF ERN NEB THROUGH SRN MN...NRN/CNTRL IA INTO SWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID-UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...INTO WISCONSIN. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A FEW SIGNIFICANT AND/OR A VIOLENT TORNADO IN ADDITION TO LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT... MOST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IL. REF MCD 1016 FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTION OF NEB/FAR SE SD AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IA. REF MCD 1015 FOR MORE DETAILS. 19Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM OAX INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPH AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. WITH THE ADDED FOCUS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...SEVERAL SIG TORS AND/OR A VIOLENT TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS SUCH...UPGRADE TO 15% SIG TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED. ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
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