lundi 23 juin 2014

Jun 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRH HIGH PLAINS...

   CORRECTED FOR DAY MENTIONED IN LAST PARAGRAPH

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
   GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY TODAY AS WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
   PLAINS OF ERN CO WILL HELP REINFORCE UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT...SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN ERN CO SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F TODAY
   ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ON THE CHEYENNE
   RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE CO
   HIGH PLAINS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON...MCS
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AKRON CO AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB
   LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT MAY
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POSSIBLY HAILSTONES
   OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES. THE WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE MCS CAN DEVELOP A
   COLD POOL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH PARTS OF NERN NM AND THE NWRN
   TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.

   ...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. TODAY AS
   WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS
   THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
   UPPER 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   BY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM DETROIT MI SWWD TO
   INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire