NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRH HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR DAY MENTIONED IN LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AS WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN CO WILL HELP REINFORCE UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN ERN CO SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F TODAY ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE CO HIGH PLAINS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AKRON CO AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POSSIBLY HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE MCS CAN DEVELOP A COLD POOL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH PARTS OF NERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. ...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. TODAY AS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM DETROIT MI SWWD TO INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
lundi 23 juin 2014
Jun 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
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