jeudi 24 juillet 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 25 Jul 2014 06:00 to Sat 26 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Jul 2014 20:45
Forecaster: TASZAREK
A level 1 was issued for S Norway mainly for excessive precipitation

A level 1 was issued for S Poland mainly for excessive precipitation

A level 1 was issued for N Italy, parts of Austria and Slovenia mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail

A level 1 was issued for SW France and parts of Spain mainly for large hail

A level 1 was issued for coastal area of Algeria and Tunisia mainly for large and very large hail and severe wind gusts


Weak mid-level flow with low horizontal pressure gradient dominate over most of the European continent and favors homogenous airmass internal thunderstorms. High pressure system located over Scandinavia pushes polar jet stream far to the north and provides low-sheared environment over Europe. Weak mid-level trough over Benelux creates wide cyclonic flow over S Europe with the jet streak located over W and central Mediterranean. Rather weak lapse rates and moderate moisture content accompanied by low sheared environment are expected over most of the forecast area. Equilibrium level temperatures exceeding -40C in central European regions may create electrically active ordinary thunderstorms, although lack of strong wind shear will prevent them from organizing into multicells and supercells. Thunderstorms in the most of the regions will form in the afternoon hours and decay after the sunset, however they may go on during the night in northern Scandinavia and Italy where QG-forcing will be available. Most favorable conditions for the severe weather will be located in the W Meditarrean, although strong convective inhibition is expected to prevent from convective initiation. 

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