Jul 24, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT AND ND...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN VA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   OCCUR FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. ISOLATED
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
   FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   POTENT BC/WA UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NE INTO S CNTRL AB THIS
   EVE BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO MB EARLY FRI. IN SO DOING...SYSTEM WILL
   FLATTEN AMPLIFIED RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS TO THE NRN
   PLNS. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
   BASE OF ERN CANADA UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
   TODAY AND OFF THE NRN AND MID-ATLANTIC CSTS EARLY FRI.

   AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BC/WA LOW WILL PROGRESS
   STEADILY E/SE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERTAKE LEE LOW NOW IN SE MT AS THE LATTER
   FEATURE TRACKS GENERALLY E ACROSS SD LATER TODAY/TNGT.

   ...NRN HIGH PLNS/NRN PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
   STOUT EML CAP OVERSPREADING WRN AND CNTRL ND ATTM SHOULD PROHIBIT
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT EWD-MOVING SQLN THROUGH THE
   DAY TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE SQLN SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN LATER
   THIS MORNING AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP RETREATING SFC
   RIDGE.

   FARTHER W...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING ON
   SERN SIDE OF PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW SHOULD FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTN ALONG/AHEAD OF MT COLD FRONT. MOISTURE...WHILE MORE LIMITED
   WITH WWD EXTENT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN 50-60 KT 700-500 MB WLY JET STREAK
   OVERSPREADING REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN/NRN
   ND BY MID TO LATE EVE...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WITH
   FAIRLY POTENT BOWING SEGMENTS/VERY HIGH WIND.

   ...SRN VA/CAROLINAS TODAY...
   SFC HEATING OF VERY MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG/AHEAD OF
   WEAK COLD FRONT MAY YIELD SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS/BANDS OF DIURNAL
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   GIVEN 25-30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
   THE BOUNDARY.

   ...IA/MN EARLY FRI...
   ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN LATE IN
   THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
   LOW. GIVEN DEEP/STOUT EML THAT WILL BE OVERSPREADING REGION...AND
   RICH 850 MB MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLD
   STORMS WITH SVR HAIL BEFORE THE INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MERGE INTO
   LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.