mercredi 30 juillet 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 31 Jul 2014 06:00 to Fri 01 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 31 Jul 2014 00:30
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for parts of Finland mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Finland and north-western Russia mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Greece to Bulgaria and southern Romania mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the Baltic States, eastern Poland into Czech Rep, Slovakia, eastern Austria, Hungary, and the northern Balkans as well as the Alpine region mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lower extend large hail.


A well-developed cut-off low moves slowly from the Adriatic Sea to the Balkan Peninsula. To its north, an intensifying ridge stretches from south-western Europe across central Europe to western Russia. A head of low geopotential over north-western Europe and the north-east Atlantic, several short-wave troughs move north-eastward.

At lower levels, a cold front has crossed Sweden and Germany and will affect a region from Finland to Poland and the northern Balkans on Thursday. Rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will allow for CAPE around 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. Rich moisture will also remain in the Alpine region, whereas drier air spreads into Germany and France.

Most storms will be weakly organized on Thursday, and main threat will be excessive precipitation given the moist profiles ahead of the cold front. Better storm organization due to stronger vertical wind shear can be expected in the vicinity of the cut-off low over Greece and Bulgaria as well as ahead of a short-wave trough entering Finland during the day.

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