dimanche 6 juillet 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 07 Jul 2014 06:00 to Tue 08 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 06 Jul 2014 22:06
A level 2 was issued for parts of central and northeastern Germany mainly for extreme rainfall, and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe winds.

A level 2 was issued for a part of S Germany and and the adjacent plains for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe winds and extreme rainfall.

A level 2 was issued for Corsica, parts of northern Italy, western Slovenia and western Croatia mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts and extreme rainfall.

A large level 1 area was issued covering Poland, the Czech Republic, much of Austria, SE Germany, the NW Balkans, Italy and the western Mediterranean mainly for a risk of large hail, isolated severe winds gusts and extreme rainfall. The level 1 also covers parts of W and N Germany, France, Switzerland mainly for a risk of extreme precipitation.


A longwave trough stretches all the way from Iceland towards the Iberian Peninsula. Several local potential vorticy (PV) maxima - shortwave troughs - are part of this trough. Most importantly, a PV maximum over the sourthern Bay of Biscay is projected to move into the northern part of the Western Mediterranean basin, before lifting NEward on Tuesday. Pressure falls ahead of the system - and ahead of a subtle vorticity maximum preceding it - will lead to covergence across Germany and northern Italy.

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