Jul 7, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK
   AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST CONCENTRATED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHEAST
   KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND WILL AMPLIFY DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
   PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A
   PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. A
   LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
   WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO
   NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION LIFTS NWD DURING
   THE DAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
   WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
   A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI WEST ALONG 
   THE KS/NEB BORDER EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
   OF THE WRN PORTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEB BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME
   HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE BUT
   CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG FROM SRN NEB EWD
   INTO NRN MO. STRENGTHENING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND
   NORTH OF THE FRONT. SVR TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS NEB AIDED BY STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS AS THE
   SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE LIKELY...AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL
   SRH SUPPORTING A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS
   TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS...POSSIBLY WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN KS...SRN IA AND NRN MO.

   AS THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...TSTMS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
   SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN DAKS /UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT LESS ACROSS THIS AREA /MLCAPE AVERAGING 1000-2000
   J/KG/...STRONG DEEP SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   WITH SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ...OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NEW YORK/SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
   MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE.
   FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY RESIDUAL CLOUDS/OUTFLOW IN THIS
   AREA...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS
   BY AFTN WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG /LOCALLY HIGHER/ ACROSS
   NY/NEW ENGLAND AND 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO. OTHERWISE...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOW/MID
   LEVELS WILL FAVOR SHORT LINES OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...AZ...
   STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF AZ WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
   DEVELOPING ALONG WITH LARGE INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER SERN AZ...WITH ELY MID-LEVEL WINDS
   PERHAPS HELPING A FEW STORMS TO PROPAGATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG OR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.