mercredi 13 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 14 Aug 2014 06:00 to Fri 15 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 13 Aug 2014 22:15
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 and 1 were issued for parts of south-western Russia, northern Belarus, and eastern Latvia and Estonia mainly for tornadoes, severe wind gusts, and to a lesser extend excessive precipitation and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for the northern and central Adriatic region, the central Balkans into the western Ukraine mainly for large or very large hail and to a lesser extend excessive rain, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for eastern England, north-eastern France, northern Netherlands and Germany mainly for excessive precipitation and waterspouts.


A long-wave trough covers western and central Europe, yielding a strong south-westerly flow from the central Mediterranean to north-eastern Europe. Several vort-maxima will travel with this jet stream across the Balkans and eastern Europe on Thursday. Another vort-maxima is associated with the axis of the long-wave trough that moves from the British Isles towards France during the day. At lower levels, warm and well-mixed air spreads northward into south-western Russia ahead of a frontal boundary. Cool air masses dominate most of Europe further west. Best moisture is associated with the frontal boundary from south-western Russia to the south Mediterranean, despite rich moisture across the Black Sea. However, some better moisture can be also found near the axis of the long-wave trough.

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