mardi 12 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 Aug 2014 06:00 to Thu 14 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Aug 2014 22:03
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and large hail.

A level 2 was issued for S to Central Poland mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for E Austria, Moravia, W Slovakia and S / Central Poland mainly for severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and tornadoes.


A deep cyclonic vortex is forecast to remain located over the Norwegian Sea, filled with cold airmass at mid troposphere. Towards the south, at the base of the vortex, a short-wave trough will rotate around it, its axis translating from France towards Germany, Alpine region and Czech Republic. Trough will be embedded in seasonably trong mid-level flow, yielding windspeeds between 20 and 30 m/s.

Two foci for DMC are expected. The first being the NW and N part of Europe, with steep lapse rates induced by cold mid-tropospheric temperatures. These storms will mostly form in weak wind profile, but may locally cause heavy precipitation or small hail. Near the coastlines, waterspout events are not ruled out either.

The second one will be a wavy frontal zone with cyclogenesis processes. Storms may form along in a belt from N Italy towards Poland, under strong vertical wind shear. This zone will be discussed in detail below.

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