European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 20 Aug 2014 06:00 to Thu 21 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 20 Aug 2014 07:26
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued NE Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy towards Croatia and SW Hungary mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued for N Adriatics mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for NE Belarus and parts of W Russia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.


SYNOPSIS

A deep, long-wave trough resides over N Europe, filled with cold airmass at mid-troposphere, its base stretching towards the N Mediterranean. Strong 500 hPa flow is surrounding the trough and at its eastern flank, an embedded short-wave is observed. This feature is expected to cross the Baltic States and Belarus towards W Russia. Another short-wave will move from British Isles towards Germany and the Czech Republic. Two main foci for DMC development are forecast:

1/ Ahead and along the wavy frontal boundary spanning from N Italy towards W Russia.

2/ Under the cold airmass especially over parts of Scandinavia, the Northern and the Baltic Sea.